El Pollo Loco Stock Performance

LOCO Stock  USD 10.36  0.23  2.27%   
The firm owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 1.47, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, El Pollo will likely underperform. At this point, El Pollo Loco has a negative expected return of -0.0472%. Please make sure to confirm El Pollo's standard deviation, expected short fall, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and rate of daily change , to decide if El Pollo Loco performance from the past will be repeated in the future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days El Pollo Loco has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of very healthy fundamental indicators, El Pollo is not utilizing all of its potentials. The newest stock price disarray, may contribute to short-term losses for the investors. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(0.20)
Five Day Return
(4.34)
Year To Date Return
(1.84)
Ten Year Return
(15.58)
All Time Return
(57.84)
Dividend Date
2022-11-09
Ex Dividend Date
2022-10-21
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Begin Period Cash Flow7.3 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-18.9 M

El Pollo Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  1,053  in El Pollo Loco on November 4, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (40.00) from holding El Pollo Loco or give up 3.8% of portfolio value over 90 days. El Pollo Loco is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 1.7612% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 15% of stocks are less volatile than LOCO, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days El Pollo is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 2.37 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.03 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.09 per unit of volatility.

El Pollo Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of LOCO Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 10.36 90 days 10.36 
about 75.99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of El Pollo to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 75.99 (This El Pollo Loco probability density function shows the probability of LOCO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.47 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, El Pollo will likely underperform. Additionally El Pollo Loco has an alpha of 0.0233, implying that it can generate a 0.0233 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   El Pollo Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for El Pollo

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as El Pollo Loco. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of El Pollo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.3810.1411.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.1212.5114.27
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
7.589.3411.10
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
13.2014.5016.10
Details

El Pollo Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. El Pollo is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the El Pollo's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold El Pollo Loco, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of El Pollo within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.02
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.47
σ
Overall volatility
0.51
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

El Pollo Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of El Pollo for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for El Pollo Loco can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
El Pollo Loco generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
El Pollo Loco currently holds 263.02 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.72, which is about average as compared to similar companies. El Pollo Loco has a current ratio of 0.77, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about El Pollo's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
Over 93.0% of El Pollo shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: How Investors Are Reacting To Dominos Pizza Game-Day Deal And Boardroom Influence Shift

El Pollo Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of LOCO Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential El Pollo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. El Pollo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding30 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.5 M

El Pollo Fundamentals Growth

LOCO Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of El Pollo, and El Pollo fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on LOCO Stock performance.

About El Pollo Performance

By examining El Pollo's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can obtain critical insights into El Pollo's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability. These insights assist in making well-informed investment and management decisions. For example, a high Return on Assets and Return on Equity would indicate that El Pollo is effectively utilizing its assets and equity to generate significant profits, enhancing its appeal to investors. On the other hand, low ROA and ROE values could reveal issues in asset and equity management, highlighting the need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 2.14  2.67 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.08  0.05 
Return On Capital Employed 0.09  0.08 
Return On Assets 0.04  0.02 
Return On Equity 0.09  0.10 

Things to note about El Pollo Loco performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about El Pollo for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for El Pollo Loco help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
El Pollo Loco generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
El Pollo Loco currently holds 263.02 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.72, which is about average as compared to similar companies. El Pollo Loco has a current ratio of 0.77, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about El Pollo's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
Over 93.0% of El Pollo shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: How Investors Are Reacting To Dominos Pizza Game-Day Deal And Boardroom Influence Shift
Evaluating El Pollo's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate El Pollo's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing El Pollo's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether El Pollo's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining El Pollo's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating El Pollo's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of El Pollo's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of El Pollo's stock. These opinions can provide insight into El Pollo's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating El Pollo's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact El Pollo's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.
When determining whether El Pollo Loco offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of El Pollo's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of El Pollo Loco Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on El Pollo Loco Stock:
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in El Pollo Loco. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state and metro area employment, hours, and earnings.
You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Will Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure sector continue expanding? Could LOCO diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of El Pollo. Expected growth trajectory for LOCO significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every El Pollo data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.19
Earnings Share
0.88
Revenue Per Share
16.496
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.009
Return On Assets
0.045
Understanding El Pollo Loco requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects LOCO's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what El Pollo's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push El Pollo's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that El Pollo's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether El Pollo represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, El Pollo's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.